Mobile Money Account Growth and Transaction Volume in Kenya, 2007-2023

This paper analyses the relationship between transaction value and transaction volume for mobile money services in Kenya from 2007 to 2023, drawing on monthly data published by the Central Bank of Kenya. The two variables are directly related, but the link is less than proportional, so a given rise in registered accounts does not produce an equal rise in transaction volume. Both volume and value follow upward long-term trends, shown in Figures 3 and 4, even as volatility has grown in recent years. This growth has had a measurable social effect: research indicates that M-PESA has helped a substantial share of Kenya's population escape poverty. Account growth, however, does not explain everything. Physical agent networks play an independent role in driving activity, so registering more users does not by itself guarantee higher transaction activity. To improve financial inclusion, policymakers should focus on usage and accessibility rather than account numbers alone.