The Impact of Climate on Crop Production

Climate change poses a growing threat to global agricultural productivity, particularly in regions already exposed to high temperatures and water stress. This paper examines the relationship between climate variables and crop production in Brazil, a major global agricultural producer. Our analysis uses municipality-level production data combined with satellite-based climate measures. We hypothesized that if variables like temperature, humidity, and nitrogen monoxide (NO) levels differed, then crop production would also change. Our analysis revealed that, generally, as temperature, humidity, and pollution levels increase, crop production outcomes decrease across multiple crop types. Specifically, the fitted curves show different patterns in crop production across temperature, humidity, and pollution levels. Based on the literature review, regions with greater access to agricultural technologies exhibit reduced production volatility, indicating that technological adaptation may partially offset climate-induced losses. Therefore, we discuss how our findings implicate technological adoption for mitigation of adverse climate effects, highlighting the importance of targeted technology diffusion and climate forecasting tools in sustaining agricultural output under future climate change scenarios.