The Impact of COVID-19 on U.S. Internal Migration

Internal migration refers to the movement of people within a country; internal migration patterns vary by differing demographic groups, socioeconomic factors, and temporal factors. Internal migration is an important mechanism for individuals to improve their socio-economic status and find new employment opportunities. Those most likely to internally migrate are the unemployed, college-educated, and those of working age.

Prior research has found that interstate migration has been declining since the late 20th century, consistently reaching historic lows. This paper examines the prevalence of interstate migration for the years 2000-2025, with an emphasis on the COVID-19 pandemic years. Using data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and its Annual Socio-Economic Supplement (ASEC), this paper finds a widespread decline in interstate migration across all socio-economic demographic groups consistent with prior literature. Additionally, interstate migration did not decrease discernibly more during the COVID-19 pandemic than prior to it. The adjusted odds of interstate migration were lower for Hispanic at 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68 to 0.73) and 0.93 (95% CI: 0.90 to 0.97) for Non-Hispanic Black compared to Non-Hispanic White. Compared to individuals with a high school diploma or equivalent (adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics), the adjusted odds were higher for those with at least some college at 1.35 (95% CI: 1.32 to 1.38) and lower for those with less than a high school education at 0.83 (95% CI: 0.79 to 0.86). Compared to those born in the United States, the adjusted odds of interstate migration were lower for naturalized citizens at 0.85 (95% CI: 0.81 to 0.90) and higher for Non-citizens at 1.30 (95% CI: 1.25 to 1.36), adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics.

Overall, these findings suggest that long-term structural factors, rather than short-term disruptions such as the COVID-19 pandemic, continue to drive patterns of interstate migration in the United States.