How has land-use change affected vegetation productivity in Uzbekistan since 2000?
Asilbek Ashrapov
09/09/2026
Throughout the years, as a soviet state, Uzbekistan was highly dependent on cotton cultivation that led to land degradation and soil salinization. Since 2000, the government drastically reduced cotton growing area and increased wheat cultivation to provide diversification and food security. This poses an essential question of whether the decline in the harvested area of major crops in Uzbekistan is an indication of recovery of the ecology or is related to a decrease in vegetation productivity (NDVI) over 2000-2024. The statistical analysis of the FAOSTAT agricultural database and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data for 2000-2024 shows a statistically significant negative correlation (r=-0.75, t=-5.44, p<0.001) between the area of cultivated cotton and mean NDVI values in the country. This suggests that as cotton fields decreased, the country consistently became greener in terms of NDVI values. Wheat acreage, however, showed no significant relationship to this greening (r = -0.13, t = -0.63, p = 0.54). Despite the contraction of agricultural land, both per-hectare crop yields and national NDVI increased. These findings indicate that Uzbekistan’s recent "greening" is not a natural ecological recovery, but rather a reflection of intensive agricultural production on reduced land.